Word on the street is that its going to go to Eugene Fama for his work on portfolio theory and asset pricing (but then again, who knows, given the curveballs the committee has thrown so far). The Guardian has a good piece arguing that the prize needs to show that its “more than an award for stockmarket speculators.”
In that vein, I want to make my pipe dream predictions for this year’s winner:
William J. Baumol for his work on entrepreneurship and institutions.
Anne Krueger and Gordon Tullock for their work on rent-seeking.
Mark Granovetter for his work on the role of social networks in economc life.
Am I missing anyone?
Update: And the winners are Elinor Ostrom and Oliver Williamson for their analysis of economic governance. Not on my list, but excellent picks nonetheless!
- Josh McCabe
It’s never going to happen, but in a just world Kirzner would at least stand a chance.
By the way, I don’t mean to imply that every body hates Austrian economics or whatever. Just that I don’t think he stands a reasonable chance of winning.
should be clear… the prize in economics is not a Nobel prize. It was started in ’68 and is the “The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel” founded by a bank which isn’t quite the same as the Nobel foundation.
If Baumol’s going to get it, he should share it with Kirzner.
jeremy: I realize this but the real title is just such a damn mouthful! Maybe we could get SRPESMAN to catch on though…
Art: I said “pipe dream” not “wet dream.” haha
i hope for a social science prize in the future. that’s a true pipe dream.
until we start to recognize different social ontologies, i think we’re going to be recreating many more mistakes in terms of public policy.
i mean, is it not that hard to imagine how behavioral economics could take hold and then a bunch of investors would start relying on those beliefs for investments, inflate another bubble, which would remain invisible until it popped again?
two prayers for granvotter. if there’s a year where a sociologist has a shot, this may be it. economics as a discipline has taken quite a public beating–krugman/economist frontpage/countless academic articles. maybe we’ll see something new.
The analytical narrative will be more important over the next fifteen years or so with these two as the awardees.